Last Week in the Markets: March 10th – 14th, 2025
Sources: Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/markets, MSCI https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search and ARG Inc. analysis.
What happened last week?
Most of the news for the week is centred on the repercussions of a trade war initiated by Donald Trump. Countries, like Canada, Mexico and China, responded with tariffs and restrictions to fight those introduced and threatened by Trump’s Executive Orders. Tariffs and responses are expected to add at least ½% to inflation in Canada and the U.S. Boston Fed and tariff impacts Consumer Sentiment fears
The U.S. administration is denying economic theory and history. However, markets understand the implications and have reacted. The large jump on Friday was not enough to overcome the losses early in the week for equities. Gold, a traditional safe-haven to combat uncertainty, rose to an all-time high and closed the week over $3,000 per ounce. Wall Street and tariffs
On Wednesday morning the Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate. The announcement included, “While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing US tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest. Against this background, and with inflation close to the 2% target, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by a further 25 basis points. by ¼% (25 basis points) to 2.75%.”
U.S. consumer prices increased 0.2 percent in February, and on a year-over-year basis the all-items index increased 2.8 percent before seasonal adjustment. In January, the monthly inflation increase was 0.5 percent, and the annualized inflation rate was 3.0 percent. BLS release
On Friday, Mark Carney, former central bank leader, replaced Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister. Federal election speculation builds as the Liberals enjoy a popularity bump.
What’s ahead for this week and beyond?
In Canada, housing starts, new housing price index, retail sales, CPI, Industrial Production Price Index (IPPI) and Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) will be announced.
In the U.S., retail sales and inventories, business inventories, building permits, housing starts, home sales, import and export prices, capacity utilization, industrial and manufacturing production will be reported. The Federal Reserve will update interest rates and conduct a press conference on Wednesday.
Globally, China’s industrial production, retail sales and employment, Japan’s imports, exports and trade balance, capacity utilization, industrial production, machinery orders, CPI, and the Eurozone’s trade balance, wages, CPI, Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, and consumer confidence will be released. An EU Leaders Summit and interest rate announcements from Japan and China will occur.
